This morning's final revision to UK Q1 GDP showed 'no change' to the previous reading of 0.5% growth in the 3 months to March.
Those of you following exchange rates for sending money abroad will have been hoping for better news to turn around the Pound's recent decline.
With house price and mortgage data still to come this week, further losses could be on the cards unless there is some (unlikely) positive news.
Tuesday, 28 June 2011
Monday, 27 June 2011
Currency news this week
As we near the end of June, a quiet week ahead for economic data, with the notable exception of UK GDP released tomorrow morning at 9.30am. This is the final revision of economic growth in the first quarter of 2011, and one of the main measures which influences markets' views on the UK economy - therefore any revision to the previous figures is likely to have an immediate impact on sterling.
Don't forget that next week the European Central Bank are likely to raise their interest rates too, which could well give the Euro strength, reducing rates for buying Euros. We also have the ongoing Greek crisis with votes due on austerity measures, and the prospect of UK strikes later in the week unlikely to help the Pound's cause either.
Monday 27th
1330 - US personal income & expenditure
Tuesday 28th
0930 - UK GDP & business investment
1500 - US consumer confidence
Wednesday 29th
0930 - UK mortgage approvals
1000 - Eurozone consumer confidence
1200 - Canadian CPI inflation
Overnight - UK consumer confidence
Thursday 30th
0700 - German retail sales
0855 - German unemployment
1000 - Eurozone CPI inflation
1330 - Canadian GDP
Friday 1st
1500 - US construction spending
Don't forget that next week the European Central Bank are likely to raise their interest rates too, which could well give the Euro strength, reducing rates for buying Euros. We also have the ongoing Greek crisis with votes due on austerity measures, and the prospect of UK strikes later in the week unlikely to help the Pound's cause either.
Monday 27th
1330 - US personal income & expenditure
Tuesday 28th
0930 - UK GDP & business investment
1500 - US consumer confidence
Wednesday 29th
0930 - UK mortgage approvals
1000 - Eurozone consumer confidence
1200 - Canadian CPI inflation
Overnight - UK consumer confidence
Thursday 30th
0700 - German retail sales
0855 - German unemployment
1000 - Eurozone CPI inflation
1330 - Canadian GDP
Friday 1st
1500 - US construction spending
Wednesday, 22 June 2011
Bank of England votes 7-2 as Greece survives vote
The Bank of England has revealed its interest-rate setting committee voted 7-2 to keep interest rates on hold in June.
New member Ben Broadbent voted for no change, replacing ex-member Andrew Sentance who was a supporter of higher interest rates.
In a blow for the Pound, interest rate rises this year are now seen as even less likely, causing the value of sterling to fall this morning.
In Greece, the government has also passed a vote of confidence ahead of proposed austerity measures and another ECB/IMF bailout, adding strength to the Euro and decreasing exchange rates further for those of you sending money to Europe.
New member Ben Broadbent voted for no change, replacing ex-member Andrew Sentance who was a supporter of higher interest rates.
In a blow for the Pound, interest rate rises this year are now seen as even less likely, causing the value of sterling to fall this morning.
In Greece, the government has also passed a vote of confidence ahead of proposed austerity measures and another ECB/IMF bailout, adding strength to the Euro and decreasing exchange rates further for those of you sending money to Europe.
Monday, 20 June 2011
This week's currency news
This week's main news for the Pound is likely to be Wednesday's Bank of England Minutes, which will show the split in the vote to keep interest rates on hold earlier this month. With a new committee member, Ben Broadbent, voting for the first time, there may be some change from the 6-3 split seen in the last few months.
With ongoing severe debt problems in Greece, planned public sector strikes in the UK next week, and lots of other economic news due out around the world, there could be volatility in the currency markets.
Monday 20th
0700 - German PPI inflation
Tuesday 21st
0230 - Australian interest rate minutes
0930 - UK public sector net borrowing
1000 - Eurozone & German ZEW sentiment survey
1330 - Canadian retail sales
1500 - US home sales
2345 - New Zealand current account
Wednesday 22nd
0930 - Bank of England minutes
1000 - Eurozone industrial orders
1500 - Eurozone consumer confidence
1730 - US interest rate decision
Thursday 23rd
0715 - Swiss trade balance
0900 - Eurozone manufacturing & services inflation
0930 - UK mortgage approvals
Friday 24th
1330 - US GDP
With ongoing severe debt problems in Greece, planned public sector strikes in the UK next week, and lots of other economic news due out around the world, there could be volatility in the currency markets.
Monday 20th
0700 - German PPI inflation
Tuesday 21st
0230 - Australian interest rate minutes
0930 - UK public sector net borrowing
1000 - Eurozone & German ZEW sentiment survey
1330 - Canadian retail sales
1500 - US home sales
2345 - New Zealand current account
Wednesday 22nd
0930 - Bank of England minutes
1000 - Eurozone industrial orders
1500 - Eurozone consumer confidence
1730 - US interest rate decision
Thursday 23rd
0715 - Swiss trade balance
0900 - Eurozone manufacturing & services inflation
0930 - UK mortgage approvals
Friday 24th
1330 - US GDP
Thursday, 16 June 2011
Retail sales fall 1.4%
May's disappointing retail sales figures, showing a 1.4% drop in May, have held sterling back this morning.
High street activity was expected to fall after April's spike due to the royal wedding and run of bank holidays, but the decline was much more than expected.
We have now had all major UK data for the week, although for those of you tracking Euro rates we have the ECB monthly report and Eurozone trade balance due out tomorrow morning.
High street activity was expected to fall after April's spike due to the royal wedding and run of bank holidays, but the decline was much more than expected.
We have now had all major UK data for the week, although for those of you tracking Euro rates we have the ECB monthly report and Eurozone trade balance due out tomorrow morning.
Wednesday, 15 June 2011
Mixed bag for unemployment
Unemployment figures this morning showed a drop of 88,000 in the 3 months to April, the biggest fall since 2000, with the jobless total now 2.43m.
However, the number of jobseekers' allowance claimants rose by 19,600 to 1.4m, the biggest rise since July 2009.
Earnings growth also fell.
Given the mixed data, the Pound intially fell but has since recovered against the Euro, although is losing ground against the US Dollar. Call us at Currency Index for the latest live rates.
However, the number of jobseekers' allowance claimants rose by 19,600 to 1.4m, the biggest rise since July 2009.
Earnings growth also fell.
Given the mixed data, the Pound intially fell but has since recovered against the Euro, although is losing ground against the US Dollar. Call us at Currency Index for the latest live rates.
Tuesday, 14 June 2011
UK inflation stays at 4.5%
Sterling has fallen back this morning after inflation figures showed 'no change' in May at 4.5%.
High inflation has been one of the main arguments for raising UK interest rates, and the Bank of England expects inflation to go up further throughout the summer. This morning's figures were lower than expected, and coupled with Halifax's announcement this morning that May house prices were 4.2% lower than a year ago, the Pound has started to lose value again.
High inflation has been one of the main arguments for raising UK interest rates, and the Bank of England expects inflation to go up further throughout the summer. This morning's figures were lower than expected, and coupled with Halifax's announcement this morning that May house prices were 4.2% lower than a year ago, the Pound has started to lose value again.
Monday, 13 June 2011
Currency news this week
This week's economic calendar is below, and in the UK we have 3 main releases: inflation, unemployment and retail sales, at 9.30 each morning from Tuesday to Thursday.
Each of these has the potential to impact the value of sterling.
Retail sales & inflation are also due out in the USA, and inflation in Europe, so we could see some volatility this week in GBP-EUR and GBP-USD. Call Currency Index on 0800 043 2623 for the latest rates and news.
Monday 13th
No major data
Tuesday 14th
Overnight - UK consumer confidence & RICS house price balance
0930 - UK inflation (RPI & CPI)
1330 - US retail sales
2345 - New Zealand retail sales
Wednesday 15th
0930 - UK unemployment rate
1000 - Eurozone industrial production
1330 - US inflation (CPI)
Thursday 16th
0830 - Swiss interest rate decision
0930 - UK retail sales
1000 - Eurozone inflation (CPI)
Friday 17th
0900 - ECB monthly report
1000 - Eurozone trade balance
Each of these has the potential to impact the value of sterling.
Retail sales & inflation are also due out in the USA, and inflation in Europe, so we could see some volatility this week in GBP-EUR and GBP-USD. Call Currency Index on 0800 043 2623 for the latest rates and news.
Monday 13th
No major data
Tuesday 14th
Overnight - UK consumer confidence & RICS house price balance
0930 - UK inflation (RPI & CPI)
1330 - US retail sales
2345 - New Zealand retail sales
Wednesday 15th
0930 - UK unemployment rate
1000 - Eurozone industrial production
1330 - US inflation (CPI)
Thursday 16th
0830 - Swiss interest rate decision
0930 - UK retail sales
1000 - Eurozone inflation (CPI)
Friday 17th
0900 - ECB monthly report
1000 - Eurozone trade balance
Thursday, 9 June 2011
Europe and UK keep interest rates on hold
Both today's interest rate decisions, in the UK and Eurozone, were 'no change' as expected. The Bank of England is widely tipped to keep interest rates on hold until late 2011, while the European Central Bank may raise rates further in the summer.
European Central Bank Trichet, in the accompanying press conference, again states "strong vigilance" was warranted, which is taken to mean that European interest rates could well be increased to stave off inflation over the summer.
Higher interest rates tend to make a currency more expensive, so the cost of exchanging sterling to Euros might be likely to increase if analysts start to 'price in' Eurozone interest rate rises before we see any in the UK.
For further analysis please see Reuters or call us at Currency Index (0800 043 2623) for the latest views and live rates.
European Central Bank Trichet, in the accompanying press conference, again states "strong vigilance" was warranted, which is taken to mean that European interest rates could well be increased to stave off inflation over the summer.
Higher interest rates tend to make a currency more expensive, so the cost of exchanging sterling to Euros might be likely to increase if analysts start to 'price in' Eurozone interest rate rises before we see any in the UK.
For further analysis please see Reuters or call us at Currency Index (0800 043 2623) for the latest views and live rates.
Sunday, 5 June 2011
This week's currency news
This week sees the monthly round of interest rate decisions in the UK, Europe, New Zealand and Australia. Rates are expected to remain on hold in the UK for several more months, so any other currencies where interest rates start to rise further will probably gain momentum, leaving their currencies more expensive.
We also have the UK trade balance out on Thursday, but little else to potentially give the Pound a boost. Releases due out around the world are listed below.
Monday 6th
1000 - Eurozone PPI inflation
Tuesday 7th
0530 - Australian interest rate decision
1000 - Eurozone retail sales
Wednesday 8th
1000 - Eurozone GDP
2200 - New Zealand interest rate decision
Thursday 9th
0230 - Australian unemployment rate
0930 - UK trade balance
1200 - UK interest rate decision
1245 - Eurozone interest rate decision
1330 - US trade balance
Friday 10th
0930 - UK industrial & production manufacturing
1200 - Canadian unemployment rate
1530 - UK GDP estimate
We also have the UK trade balance out on Thursday, but little else to potentially give the Pound a boost. Releases due out around the world are listed below.
Monday 6th
1000 - Eurozone PPI inflation
Tuesday 7th
0530 - Australian interest rate decision
1000 - Eurozone retail sales
Wednesday 8th
1000 - Eurozone GDP
2200 - New Zealand interest rate decision
Thursday 9th
0230 - Australian unemployment rate
0930 - UK trade balance
1200 - UK interest rate decision
1245 - Eurozone interest rate decision
1330 - US trade balance
Friday 10th
0930 - UK industrial & production manufacturing
1200 - Canadian unemployment rate
1530 - UK GDP estimate
Wednesday, 1 June 2011
Manufacturing, mortgages and money supply all fall
Sterling fell this morning on 3 worse-than-expected data releases in the UK. Mortgage approvals fell to 45,000 in April, signalling more problems in the housing market, while manufacturing growth fell and the measure of money supply in the economy was also below expectations.
There is not much else due out this week in terms of UK data, so the Pound may struggle to recover much ground. Exchange rates fell nearly a cent against the Euro and US Dollar this morning.
There is not much else due out this week in terms of UK data, so the Pound may struggle to recover much ground. Exchange rates fell nearly a cent against the Euro and US Dollar this morning.
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