Figures out today showed the UK economy contracted by 2.4% in the first quarter of 2009, the worst figure in 50 years.
The figures were adjusted from earlier indications, and were much weaker than originally estimated.
The Pound has fallen sharply on the news, meaning the best exchange rates this year look like they may be a peak in the market for the moment.
Tuesday 30 June 2009
Monday 29 June 2009
This week's currency news
This week sees a number of data releases which are likely to bring some volatility back to the market, after a reasonably quiet week last week.
If you need to send money overseas, keep in touch with your currency broker for the latest news affecting your exchange rate.
For all rates against GBP
Tuesday - Nationwide house price survey
Tuesday - GDP data 9.30am
Wednesday - manufacturing inflation 9.30am
Australian Dollar
Tuesday - new home sales 1am
Wednesday - retail sales 2am
Thursday - Australian trade balance 2.30am
If you need to send money overseas, keep in touch with your currency broker for the latest news affecting your exchange rate.
For all rates against GBP
Tuesday - Nationwide house price survey
Tuesday - GDP data 9.30am
Wednesday - manufacturing inflation 9.30am
Australian Dollar
Tuesday - new home sales 1am
Wednesday - retail sales 2am
Thursday - Australian trade balance 2.30am
Euro
Thursday - unemployment rate 10.00am
Thursday - interest rate decision & speech 12.45pm
Friday - retail sales for May 10.00am
US Dollar
Tuesday - June consumer confidence 3.00pm
Wednesday - May home sales 3.00pm
Thursday - weekly earnings 1.30pm
Thursday - non-farm payroll data 1.30pm
Friday - market closed (US bank holiday)
Swiss Franc
Friday - Swiss CPI inflation (8.15am)
Wednesday 24 June 2009
Euro weaker on ECB cash injection
The Euro exchange rate has recovered most of its losses of the last couple of days, after the ECB pumped €442bn into credit markets to encourage liquidity to help resolve the Eurozone's recession.
This is similar to the Bank of England's quantitative easing programme, which initially weakened the Pound before seeing it strengthen weeks later.
If the same pattern happens for the Euro, we could therefore be entering a brief period where the single currency is at cheaper levels.
If you are worried about the increased cost in recent months of sending money abroad, don't forget you can fix exchange rates up to 2 years ahead through a reputable currency broker.
This is similar to the Bank of England's quantitative easing programme, which initially weakened the Pound before seeing it strengthen weeks later.
If the same pattern happens for the Euro, we could therefore be entering a brief period where the single currency is at cheaper levels.
If you are worried about the increased cost in recent months of sending money abroad, don't forget you can fix exchange rates up to 2 years ahead through a reputable currency broker.
Tuesday 23 June 2009
Euro rate down on data releases
Euro exchange rates have fallen today, after German consumer confidence and European factory prices both came out higher than expected.
The Euro has strenghtened [become more expensive] across the board, so if you need to send Euros to Spain, France or any other Eurozone country, keep a close eye on rates to make sure you don't lose out.
The Euro has strenghtened [become more expensive] across the board, so if you need to send Euros to Spain, France or any other Eurozone country, keep a close eye on rates to make sure you don't lose out.
Monday 22 June 2009
GBP Outlook
With little data released this week, the Pound has continued its upward trend after a blip on Thursday after poor UK retail sales figures.
We are currently very near the best Euro exchange rates this year so far, and whether the Pound can find any more strength from here will become apparent this week. Analysts were only expecting 1.20 to be achieved towards the end of the year, so we would be surprised to see much more movement in the short term.
This week:
We are currently very near the best Euro exchange rates this year so far, and whether the Pound can find any more strength from here will become apparent this week. Analysts were only expecting 1.20 to be achieved towards the end of the year, so we would be surprised to see much more movement in the short term.
This week:
Today 9am – German IFO business survey
Tuesday 9am – European PMI (inflation indicator)
Wednesday 7.15pm – American interest rate decision & speech
Thursday 7am – Nationwide UK house price survey
Thursday 7am – US GDP
Thursday 18 June 2009
Swiss Interest Rates Held
In Switzerland, interest rates were kept on hold this morning at 0.25%. This was as expected, although the Swiss Franc has weakened slightly to 1.7670 [interbank] making money transfers to Switzerland slightly cheaper.
Wednesday 17 June 2009
Pound falls on UK employment data
Despite better-than-expected UK jobs data, the headling unemployment rate has risen to its highest level since Labour came to power in 1997.
The Pound has tumbled since the announcement, falling a cent against both the Euro and Dollar. The best Euro exchange rates are now trading around 1.17 as a mid-market rate.
The Pound has tumbled since the announcement, falling a cent against both the Euro and Dollar. The best Euro exchange rates are now trading around 1.17 as a mid-market rate.
Bank of England minutes today
At 9.30 this morning the minutes from this month's Bank of England meeting are released. Any clues about interest rates going back up later in the year are likely to have a positive effect on the Pound, and therefore the best exchange rates available if you are transferring money overseas.
Keep in touch with your currency company if you would like to be informed of the latest movements affecting your transaction.
Keep in touch with your currency company if you would like to be informed of the latest movements affecting your transaction.
Tuesday 16 June 2009
5 pieces of good news boost Pound
This morning's data has been overwhelmingly positive for the Pound, with commercial exchange rates available for people sending money abroad improving across the board.
UK CPI for May was up 0.6% (expectations were 0.3%)
UK CPI for the year to May was up 2.2% (1.9%)
UK Retail Prices for May were up 0.6% (0.2%)
UK Retail Prices for year to May were down 1.1% (-1.5%)
UK CPI for year to May was up 1.6% (1.5%)
The Pound gained almost 2c against both the Euro and the Dollar on the release of the news.
UK CPI for May was up 0.6% (expectations were 0.3%)
UK CPI for the year to May was up 2.2% (1.9%)
UK Retail Prices for May were up 0.6% (0.2%)
UK Retail Prices for year to May were down 1.1% (-1.5%)
UK CPI for year to May was up 1.6% (1.5%)
The Pound gained almost 2c against both the Euro and the Dollar on the release of the news.
Monday 15 June 2009
This week's currency news
This week's major economic data which is like to affect commercial exchange rates:
Monday:
Eurozone - employment change (10am)
Tuesday:
UK - CPI inflation data (9.30am)
Eurozone - CPI inflation data (10am)
Germany - ZEW economic sentiment (10am)
USA - PPI inflation data (1.30pm)
Wednesday:
USA - Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke's speech (5pm)
Thursday:
Switzerland - interest rate decision (8.30am)
UK - retail sales (9.30am)
Canada - CPI inflation data (12pm)
All these releases are likely to move exchange rates. If you are sending money to Switzerland, Thursday's interest rate decision will be key, while in Europe and the USA there are several important figures to show how each economy is coping with the recession.
Monday:
Eurozone - employment change (10am)
Tuesday:
UK - CPI inflation data (9.30am)
Eurozone - CPI inflation data (10am)
Germany - ZEW economic sentiment (10am)
USA - PPI inflation data (1.30pm)
Wednesday:
USA - Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke's speech (5pm)
Thursday:
Switzerland - interest rate decision (8.30am)
UK - retail sales (9.30am)
Canada - CPI inflation data (12pm)
All these releases are likely to move exchange rates. If you are sending money to Switzerland, Thursday's interest rate decision will be key, while in Europe and the USA there are several important figures to show how each economy is coping with the recession.
Thursday 11 June 2009
New high for Pound
The Pound has continued to recover well after last week's uncertainty, and is currently trading at its best level in 2009 against the Euro.
Rates for sending money to Austria, Spain, Italy France and the other Eurozone countries are now over 1.17 on the interbank markets for the first time in 2009.
Rates for sending money to Austria, Spain, Italy France and the other Eurozone countries are now over 1.17 on the interbank markets for the first time in 2009.
Tuesday 9 June 2009
Pound recovers on government stability
The Pound has recovered somewhat as Gordon Brown held the first cabinet meeting since his emergency reshuffle.
Markets have reacted positively to Alistair Darling's continuation as Chancellor, while the immediate threat to Brown's leadership seems to have abated.
Confidence in some stability has fed through to forex markets, where the Pound is trading back up at 1.62 against the US Dollar and 1.16 against the Euro. The Australian Dollar rate has recovered to nearly 2.04.
We still expect volatility this week on any further developments, so if you need to buy currency at the best exchange rates for currency transfers make sure you keep in touch with your currency company.
Markets have reacted positively to Alistair Darling's continuation as Chancellor, while the immediate threat to Brown's leadership seems to have abated.
Confidence in some stability has fed through to forex markets, where the Pound is trading back up at 1.62 against the US Dollar and 1.16 against the Euro. The Australian Dollar rate has recovered to nearly 2.04.
We still expect volatility this week on any further developments, so if you need to buy currency at the best exchange rates for currency transfers make sure you keep in touch with your currency company.
Friday 5 June 2009
Dollar strenghtens on non-farm data
This afternoon's key American employment data (non-farm payrolls) was much more positive than expected - leading to further strength for the US Dollar against the Pound.
Anyone transferring money in US Dollars will now find their exchange rate 6c lower than its peak only a few days ago, as political trouble in the UK continues to undermine sterling.
Anyone transferring money in US Dollars will now find their exchange rate 6c lower than its peak only a few days ago, as political trouble in the UK continues to undermine sterling.
Pound plummets on UK political uncertainty
As the pressure increases on Gordon Brown, the Pound is falling rapidly across the board.
If you need to send money abroad contact your currency company urgently to discuss your requirements. Today sees the local election results throughout the day, followed by Euro poll results on Sunday.
If you need to send money abroad contact your currency company urgently to discuss your requirements. Today sees the local election results throughout the day, followed by Euro poll results on Sunday.
Thursday 4 June 2009
Interest rates today
This lunchtime sees interest rate announcements both in the UK (12.00) and Eurozone (12.45).
Although neither central bank has much room for manouevre, the Eurozone announcement at 12.45 is accompanied by a speech from ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, which often causes some volatility in the Euro exchange rates.
In the UK, there is no accompanying speech, but the interest rate announcement also includes a policy statement on quantititive easing, which can mean all commercial exchage rates against the pound can be affected.
Although neither central bank has much room for manouevre, the Eurozone announcement at 12.45 is accompanied by a speech from ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, which often causes some volatility in the Euro exchange rates.
In the UK, there is no accompanying speech, but the interest rate announcement also includes a policy statement on quantititive easing, which can mean all commercial exchage rates against the pound can be affected.
Wednesday 3 June 2009
But sterling weakens, is the upward run finished for now?
Wednesday afternoon has seen Euro and Dollar rates start to come back down - have we seen the best exchange rates for now?
- Sterling fell sharply against the dollar on Wednesday, erasing earlier gains after Asian monetary officials said they would keep buying US Bonds
- Weak American employment and services sector data hurt the outlook for global economy hitting riskier assets such as sterling
- The deteriorating market sentiment prompted investors to dismiss earlier strong UK services sector data, as UK shares tumbled 2.3%
- A worsening political crisis for Gordon Brown also helped take some shine from sterling
- Profit taking, "Sterling has had a very good run recently and people are also thinking it may be prudent to take some profit off the table now,"
- Investors are nervous ahead of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank policy decisions, as well as key US jobs data on Friday
- Hazel Blears' decision to step down follows Tuesday's resignation by Jacqui Smith. Both are seen as undermining Brown's authority on the eve of European and local elections
- Investors will also be looking to see whether there are any further announcements on quantitative easing on Thursday
- Sterling fell sharply against the dollar on Wednesday, erasing earlier gains after Asian monetary officials said they would keep buying US Bonds
- Weak American employment and services sector data hurt the outlook for global economy hitting riskier assets such as sterling
- The deteriorating market sentiment prompted investors to dismiss earlier strong UK services sector data, as UK shares tumbled 2.3%
- A worsening political crisis for Gordon Brown also helped take some shine from sterling
- Profit taking, "Sterling has had a very good run recently and people are also thinking it may be prudent to take some profit off the table now,"
- Investors are nervous ahead of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank policy decisions, as well as key US jobs data on Friday
- Hazel Blears' decision to step down follows Tuesday's resignation by Jacqui Smith. Both are seen as undermining Brown's authority on the eve of European and local elections
- Investors will also be looking to see whether there are any further announcements on quantitative easing on Thursday
PMI Grows
This morning another good surprise for the Pound - UK PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) showed expansion for May, as opposed to a small contraction expected.
PMI is a measure of the health of the UK services sector, which has been struggling during the recession - so the news is the latest in some boosts for the Pound this week. Sending dollars to the USA is, for example, now at its best level for 9 months.
PMI is a measure of the health of the UK services sector, which has been struggling during the recession - so the news is the latest in some boosts for the Pound this week. Sending dollars to the USA is, for example, now at its best level for 9 months.
UK Consumer Confidence Up
This month's Nationwide Consumer Confidence data showed an increase in sentiment in the UK - above analysts' expectations.
The announcement has given the Pound a further boost against both the Euro and US Dollar - making sending money overseas cheaper again as the recent rally for sterling continues.
If you are sending money to Dubai, don't forget that the AED rate is also pegged to the US Dollar, so in both cases the exchange rate is currently the best it's been since Autumn.
The announcement has given the Pound a further boost against both the Euro and US Dollar - making sending money overseas cheaper again as the recent rally for sterling continues.
If you are sending money to Dubai, don't forget that the AED rate is also pegged to the US Dollar, so in both cases the exchange rate is currently the best it's been since Autumn.
Tuesday 2 June 2009
UK Elections & Exchange Rates
Anyone needing to transfer money overseas is encouraged to contact their currency company in advance of this Thursday's European and local UK elections.
Historically, confidence in a country has been eroded by landslide defeats for incumbent parties - so international markets (and sterling) may not react well to any Labour wipeout this week.
The Pound is relatively strong at the moment but is still sensitive to negative news.
Historically, confidence in a country has been eroded by landslide defeats for incumbent parties - so international markets (and sterling) may not react well to any Labour wipeout this week.
The Pound is relatively strong at the moment but is still sensitive to negative news.
Australian interest rates held again
The Reserve Bank of Australia last night held interest rates, bad news for any of you making money transfers to Australia. A cut in interest rates may have weakened the Aussie currency, making exchange rates better for buying dollars.
The mid-market GBP-AUD rate has stayed at around the 2.02 level this morning.
The mid-market GBP-AUD rate has stayed at around the 2.02 level this morning.
Monday 1 June 2009
Pound gains more strength
The Pound has continued on its recent run, now trading at the best rates for buying Euros and US Dollars since last year.
Sterling touched €1.16 and $1.6450 as traders continued to move out of Euros and Dollars into more risky assets.
Look out for Eurozone and UK interest rate decisions on Thursday which may have an effect on rates in general.
The Reserve Bank of Australia also makes its monthly interest rate decision overnight tonight, which could be important if you are sending money to Australia.
Sterling touched €1.16 and $1.6450 as traders continued to move out of Euros and Dollars into more risky assets.
Look out for Eurozone and UK interest rate decisions on Thursday which may have an effect on rates in general.
The Reserve Bank of Australia also makes its monthly interest rate decision overnight tonight, which could be important if you are sending money to Australia.
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