This week we have the following news releases scheduled, all of which are potential influences on exchange rates. Contact us at Currency Index for the latest opinions & live trading rates for your own transaction.
Monday 31st
0700 - German retail sales (December)
1330 - Canadian GDP (November); US personal income & expenditure (December)
2230 - Australian manufacturing index
Tuesday 1st
0330 - Australian interest rate decision
0700 - UK house prices (Nationwide)
0900 - German unemployment rate
0930 - UK mortgage approvals (December) & money supply
1000 - Eurozone unemployment rate
Wednesday 2nd
1000 - Eurozone PPI inflation (December)
2145 - New Zealand unemployment rate
Thursday 3rd
1000 - Eurozone retail sales (December)
1245 - Eurozone interest rate decision
Friday 4th
0500 - UK house prices (Halifax)
1200 - Canadian unemployment rate
1330 - US unemployment rate & non-farm payrolls
Monday 31 January 2011
Friday 28 January 2011
Biggest drop in confidence since 1992
This morning's UK consumer confidence survey has shown its biggest fall since 1992.
Consumers are increasingly expecting a painful 2011, both in their own financial circumstances and the economy overall. With VAT up to 20% and negative growth, talk of a double-dip recession is increasing.
This is all bad news for sterling, which is continuing to fall. Unless the Bank of England decides to raise interest rates soon (which seems very unlikely), the Pound could be in for a negative period ahead.
To avoid the risk of falling currency rates making your own overseas purchase more expensive, remember you can fix and guarantee your exchange rate up to 2 years ahead with Currency Index.
Consumers are increasingly expecting a painful 2011, both in their own financial circumstances and the economy overall. With VAT up to 20% and negative growth, talk of a double-dip recession is increasing.
This is all bad news for sterling, which is continuing to fall. Unless the Bank of England decides to raise interest rates soon (which seems very unlikely), the Pound could be in for a negative period ahead.
To avoid the risk of falling currency rates making your own overseas purchase more expensive, remember you can fix and guarantee your exchange rate up to 2 years ahead with Currency Index.
Wednesday 26 January 2011
Bank of England did consider interest rate rise
This morning's Bank of England minutes showed that the MPC did consider an interest rate rise in January - and the Pound has recovered slightly this morning as a result.
For the first time since rates were slashed to 0.5%, 2 of the 9 members voted for a 0.25% hike in rates. Higher interest rates would be likely to increase the value of sterling, and therefore improve exchange rates for sending money abroad.
However, the decision was made before yesterday's disastrous GDP figures were announced, and Mervyn King's speech last night suggested that rate rises may be off the agenda until the economy returns to stable growth.
For further review of the Bank's minutes, click here.
For the first time since rates were slashed to 0.5%, 2 of the 9 members voted for a 0.25% hike in rates. Higher interest rates would be likely to increase the value of sterling, and therefore improve exchange rates for sending money abroad.
However, the decision was made before yesterday's disastrous GDP figures were announced, and Mervyn King's speech last night suggested that rate rises may be off the agenda until the economy returns to stable growth.
For further review of the Bank's minutes, click here.
Tuesday 25 January 2011
Disastrous GDP sends sterling lower
The first estimate of GDP for Q4 2010 shows the UK economy shrank by 0.5% - much worse than analysts' expectations of a 0.5% growth figure.
The Pound has fallen a cent against both the Euro and US Dollar this morning.
Mervyn King's speech this evening is unlikely to help, with many observers thinking that the Bank of England will not raise interest rates for some time to come, so sterling does not look likely to have any support in the short term.
The Pound has fallen a cent against both the Euro and US Dollar this morning.
Mervyn King's speech this evening is unlikely to help, with many observers thinking that the Bank of England will not raise interest rates for some time to come, so sterling does not look likely to have any support in the short term.
Monday 24 January 2011
This week's currency news
This week's main UK data releases are GDP (Tuesday 0930), Mervyn King's speech (Tuesday 1940) and Wednesday's Bank of England minutes (Wednesday 0930).
The Pound is vulnerable to any negative news, so any indications from the Bank of England that interest rates are not likely to be increasing in the short term, could bring exchange rates lower this week.
Monday 24th
No major data
Tuesday 25th
0030 - Australian CPI inflation
0700 - German business confidence
0930 - UK GDP (Q4 2010) and public borrowing (Dec)
1200 - Canadian CPI inflation
1500 - US consumer confidence
1940 - Speech: Bank of England governer Mervyn King
Wednesday 26th
0930 - Bank of England minutes
1915 - US interest rate decision
2000 - New Zealand interest rate decision
Thursday 27th
1000 - Eurozone consumer confidence
1330 - US jobless claims
Friday 28th
1330 - US GDP
The Pound is vulnerable to any negative news, so any indications from the Bank of England that interest rates are not likely to be increasing in the short term, could bring exchange rates lower this week.
Monday 24th
No major data
Tuesday 25th
0030 - Australian CPI inflation
0700 - German business confidence
0930 - UK GDP (Q4 2010) and public borrowing (Dec)
1200 - Canadian CPI inflation
1500 - US consumer confidence
1940 - Speech: Bank of England governer Mervyn King
Wednesday 26th
0930 - Bank of England minutes
1915 - US interest rate decision
2000 - New Zealand interest rate decision
Thursday 27th
1000 - Eurozone consumer confidence
1330 - US jobless claims
Friday 28th
1330 - US GDP
Friday 21 January 2011
Retail sales & mortgage approvals down
Sterling has been held back today by poor retail sales and mortgage figures in the UK, which showed:
- Only 40,000 new mortgages were approved in November
- Retail sales fell 0.8% in December, and were flat for the year
Analysts were hoping for a slight rise in retail sales, given the Christmas period, and for around 20% more mortgage approvals - both of which would have been indicators of better recovery in the UK economy.
With the sterling-euro rate falling away, aiming for rates of 1.20 may now not be realistic for some time to come.
- Only 40,000 new mortgages were approved in November
- Retail sales fell 0.8% in December, and were flat for the year
Analysts were hoping for a slight rise in retail sales, given the Christmas period, and for around 20% more mortgage approvals - both of which would have been indicators of better recovery in the UK economy.
With the sterling-euro rate falling away, aiming for rates of 1.20 may now not be realistic for some time to come.
Wednesday 19 January 2011
UK unemployment rises to 2.5m
This morning's UK unemployment data showed a 49,000 rise to 2.5m at the end of November - although the official unemployment rate remains at 7.9%
Some analysts are warning of a 'double dip' in unemployment, with the jobless total set to rise further in 2011 before improving.
As unemployment is a key measure of the UK's economic recovery, the Pound can be affected. This morning we have seen a slight fall in sterling's value on the back of the releases.
There is no more major UK data due out until Friday's retail sales figures at 9.30am.
Some analysts are warning of a 'double dip' in unemployment, with the jobless total set to rise further in 2011 before improving.
As unemployment is a key measure of the UK's economic recovery, the Pound can be affected. This morning we have seen a slight fall in sterling's value on the back of the releases.
There is no more major UK data due out until Friday's retail sales figures at 9.30am.
Tuesday 18 January 2011
UK inflation up to 3.7% in December
This morning's inflation figures showed an increase to 3.7% in December - the highest in 8 months.
Sterling surged higher this morning, as analysts factored in an increased likelihood of interest rate rises, which are the Bank of England's main weapon against rising inflation.
The Pound was up nearly a cent against both the US Dollar and Euro by 10am, although it has fallen back a little since.
Note that tomorrow's UK unemployment rate, released at 9.30am, could cause sterling to fall back further if the labour market is still struggling.
Sterling surged higher this morning, as analysts factored in an increased likelihood of interest rate rises, which are the Bank of England's main weapon against rising inflation.
The Pound was up nearly a cent against both the US Dollar and Euro by 10am, although it has fallen back a little since.
Note that tomorrow's UK unemployment rate, released at 9.30am, could cause sterling to fall back further if the labour market is still struggling.
Sunday 16 January 2011
This week's currency news
This week's economic data likely to affect exchange rates is listed below. Call Currency Index on 0800 043 2623 for the latest trading rates and opinions for your own overseas currency transfer.
Monday 17th
Overnight - Rightmove house price index
Tuesday 18th
Overnight - RICS house price balance & Nationwide consumer confidence
0930 - UK CPI & RPI inflation
1000 - German & Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment survey
1400 - Canadian interest rate decision
Wednesday 19th
0930 - UK unemployment rate
1000 - Eurozone construction output
1330 - US housing starts
1530 - Bank of Canada monetary policy report
2145 - New Zealand CPI inflation
Thursday 20th
0900 - European Central Bank monthly report
1500 - US existing home sales
2145 - New Zealand retail sales
Friday 21st
0900 - German business climate survey
0930 - UK retail sales & public borrowing
1330 - Canadian retail sales
Monday 17th
Overnight - Rightmove house price index
Tuesday 18th
Overnight - RICS house price balance & Nationwide consumer confidence
0930 - UK CPI & RPI inflation
1000 - German & Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment survey
1400 - Canadian interest rate decision
Wednesday 19th
0930 - UK unemployment rate
1000 - Eurozone construction output
1330 - US housing starts
1530 - Bank of Canada monetary policy report
2145 - New Zealand CPI inflation
Thursday 20th
0900 - European Central Bank monthly report
1500 - US existing home sales
2145 - New Zealand retail sales
Friday 21st
0900 - German business climate survey
0930 - UK retail sales & public borrowing
1330 - Canadian retail sales
Friday 14 January 2011
Factory inflation gives Pound a boost
After yesterday's losses, sterling has recovered this morning after higher than expected producer inflation rasied the likelihood of interest rate rises in the UK sooner rather than later.
Inflation is running well above target, and an interest rate rise would help to control it - as well as giving the Pound a boost.
The Bank of England yesterday voted for interest rates to remain at 0.5%, but we will not know how the committee vote was split until the minutes are released in a couple of weeks.
To take advantage of improved rates for your own transfers, call Currency Index on 0800 043 2623.
Inflation is running well above target, and an interest rate rise would help to control it - as well as giving the Pound a boost.
The Bank of England yesterday voted for interest rates to remain at 0.5%, but we will not know how the committee vote was split until the minutes are released in a couple of weeks.
To take advantage of improved rates for your own transfers, call Currency Index on 0800 043 2623.
Thursday 13 January 2011
Euro stronger on bond sale, as interest rates held
The Euro strengthened (became more expensive) today as Spain and Italy held successful bond sales, easing fears of further financial difficulties in the Eurozone (see Reuters' article for more).
As interest rates were held in the UK and Eurozone, USA inflation figures were weaker than expected - resulting in cheaper US Dollars and more expensive Euros this afternoon.
As interest rates were held in the UK and Eurozone, USA inflation figures were weaker than expected - resulting in cheaper US Dollars and more expensive Euros this afternoon.
Wednesday 12 January 2011
Trade gap widens
The Pound's recent run came to a halt this morning, as the UK's trade balance worsended slightly for November, compared to expectations of a slight improvement.
Stronger than expected industrial production in the Eurozone and import figures in the USA have not helped exchange rates either.
The Pound has recovered a little this afternoon however, and we now await tomorrow's round of interest rate decisions along with UK manufacturing figures at 9.30.
Stronger than expected industrial production in the Eurozone and import figures in the USA have not helped exchange rates either.
The Pound has recovered a little this afternoon however, and we now await tomorrow's round of interest rate decisions along with UK manufacturing figures at 9.30.
Tuesday 11 January 2011
Euro rate improves 3% in 10 days
So far in 2011 the Euro exchange rate has improved by over 3% - great news for those of you needing to send payments to Europe.
A weaker Euro against the USD has also helped sterling, and with no fresh bad economic news out recently in the UK, we have seen a sharp spike in rates.
Contact Currency Index for the latest rates available for your own transaction, whether for immediate transfer or fixed for a date in the future.
A weaker Euro against the USD has also helped sterling, and with no fresh bad economic news out recently in the UK, we have seen a sharp spike in rates.
Contact Currency Index for the latest rates available for your own transaction, whether for immediate transfer or fixed for a date in the future.
Sunday 9 January 2011
This week's currency news
This week we have the following data due out, which may affect exchange rates:
Monday 10th
0030 - Australian retail sales trends
1530 - Bank of Canada business outlook survey
Tuesday 11th
Overnight - British Retail Consortium retail sales monitor
0030 - Australian trade balance
1315 - Canadian housing starts
Wednesday 12th
Overnight - UK consumer confidence
0930 - UK trade balance (November)
1330 - US import price index
Thursaday 13th
Overnight - UK GDP estimate (December)
0030 - Australian unemployment rate
0930 - UK industrial & manufacturing production (November)
1200 - UK interest rate & QE decision
1245 - Eurozone interest rate decision
1330 - Speech: ECB President Trichet
1330 - US trade balance (November)
Friday 14th
0700 - German CPI inflation (December)
0930 - UK PPI inflation (December)
1000 - Eurozone CPI inflation (December) & trade balance (November)
1330 - US CPI inflation & retail sales (December)
Monday 10th
0030 - Australian retail sales trends
1530 - Bank of Canada business outlook survey
Tuesday 11th
Overnight - British Retail Consortium retail sales monitor
0030 - Australian trade balance
1315 - Canadian housing starts
Wednesday 12th
Overnight - UK consumer confidence
0930 - UK trade balance (November)
1330 - US import price index
Thursaday 13th
Overnight - UK GDP estimate (December)
0030 - Australian unemployment rate
0930 - UK industrial & manufacturing production (November)
1200 - UK interest rate & QE decision
1245 - Eurozone interest rate decision
1330 - Speech: ECB President Trichet
1330 - US trade balance (November)
Friday 14th
0700 - German CPI inflation (December)
0930 - UK PPI inflation (December)
1000 - Eurozone CPI inflation (December) & trade balance (November)
1330 - US CPI inflation & retail sales (December)
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