German unemployment weakens Euro further

This morning's German unemployment figures have added to the problems in the Eurozone, with a recorded fall of 9,000 compared to expectations of 18,000. Unemployment in the Eurozone overall is now running at 10.1%.

The Euro has weakened further (become cheaper) today while the US Dollar, which is mirroring the Euro's movements at the moment, has strengthened.

For the latest rates please contact your account manager at Currency Index.

This week's currency update

This week the main story is likely to be the continuing developments of the Irish bank bailout - and whether there will be any knock-on effects elsewhere in the Eurozone. For now the Euro has started to strengthen.

Elsewhere we have economic releases in Australia, Canada, the USA and Switzerland, all likely to affect rates for sending money abroad. Contact your foreign exchange broker for the latest rates and news.

Monday 29th
0930 - UK mortgage approvals & money supply
1000 - Eurozone economic & consumer confidence
1330 - Canadian current account

Tuesday 30th
Overnight - UK consumer confidence
0030 - Australian current account
1000 - Eurozone unemployment & CPI inflation
1330 - Canadian GDP
1500 - US consumer confidence

Wednesday 1st
0030 - Australian GDP
0700 - UK Nationwide house prices
0900 - Eurozone manufacturing inflation
0930 - UK manufacturing inflation
1500 - US manufacturing & construction

Thursday 2nd
0030 - Australian retail sales & trade balance
0645 - Swiss GDP
1000 - Eurozone GDP & PPI inflation
1245 - Eurozone interest rate decision
1330 - US jobless claims

Friday 3rd
0815 - Swiss CPI inflation
1000 - Eurozone retail sales
1200 - Canadian unemployment
1330 - US non-farm payrolls & unemployment rate

Portugal next for EU bailout?

The Eurozone is urging Portugal to seek aid. Portugal’s bonds fell on concern they will follow Ireland and Greece and present a formal request to Europe's rescue fund, similar to that of Ireland earlier in the week.

As a result the Euro has been slowly weakening (getting cheaper) this week, and we now have the best rates for sending Euro payments since mid-September. Conversely, investors are buying up US Dollars, which has brought the exchagne rate down to its worst level for a month.

GDP revised slightly upwards

This morning's GDP figures showed a slight upward adjustment to previous figures for the third quarter of the year.

The UK economy grew 0.8% in the 3 months to the end of September, or 2.8% in the 12 month period.

Sterling gained slightly on the news, and with no more major UK data out this week, securing a rate for your overseas transfer now is looking reasonable.

Euro falls, Dollar rises

The Euro has weakened significantly today, as the political problems in Ireland continue.

The main move has been between the Euro and US Dollar, which has been back in demand as a "safe haven" currency.

The result is something of a see-saw with the Pound stuck in the middle. We have improved rates for sending money in Euros, but worse rates for buying US Dollars.

Tomorrow's UK GDP figures are likely to turn focus back to sterling, so if you need to secure Euros in particular you might like to contact Currency Index for a quote before the data release at 9.30 am.

Currency news this week

The main release this week is the second estimate of Q3 GDP, which is published on Wednesday. Any downward adjustment in the UK's official growth figures would be likely to hurt sterling.

We also have the breaking news of the EU bailout of the Irish economy. Although you might expect the Euro to weaken as a result, the UK is also likely to contributing billions via the EU, so the Pound is not immune to any fallout.

This week's full calendar of releases likely to affect exchange rates is below. Contact Currency Index for the latest rates for your own transactions, and views on what might happen this week and further ahead.

Monday 22nd
1500 - Eurozone consumer confidence
1615 - Speech: European Central Bank President Trichet

Tuesday 23rd
0200 - New Zealand inflation expectations
0700 - German GDP
0900 - Eurozone manufacturing & services growth
0930 - UK mortgage approvals
1200 - Canadian CPI inflation
1330 - US GDP & Canadian retail sales
1900 - US Federal Reserve minutes

Wednesday 24th
0930 - UK GDP second estimate Q3
1330 - US jobless claims & personal expenditure

Thursday 25th
US bank holiday (Thanksgiving)
0815 - Swiss employment level

Friday 26th
No major data

Sterling recovers yesterday's losses

Having fallen back yesterday, sterling has recovered somewhat today, despite public borrowing figures this morning being much worse than expected at £9.77bn for October.

Retail sales figures were not so bad, and with the possibility of an Irish economic bailout looking more likely, the Euro is also struggling. Against the US Dollar, rates have also recovered, as volatility continues in fragile economic recoveries.

There is no major data out tomorrow, but we have speeches from the Federal Reserve chairman (Ben Bernake) and European Central Bank president (Trichet), at 2.15pm and 9.15am respectively.

Please contact Currency Index for the latest live rates for your own transaction.

Bank of England split 3 ways again

The Bank of England did not move nearer to further Quantitative Easing in their November meeting, according to their minutes released today.

7 of the 9-strong committee voted for no change, with one voting for more QE, and one voting for an interest rate rise - exactly the same result as October.

The Pound gained a small amount of value after the minutes were released.

Meanwhile EU finance ministers are meeting to discuss a possible bail-out of the Irish economy. The Euro could be affected if the Irish government asks for help, although when a rescue package was announced for Greece earlier this year, the Euro strenghtened (became more expensive) as markets saw the bailout as helping the single currency zone.

High inflation forces letter to Chancellor

This morning's UK inflation figures (3.2% for the previous 12 months) are again above the government's targets, forcing Bank of England Governer Mervyn King to write another explanatory letter to the Chancellor.

While the figures are unlikely to spark any short-term interest rate rises, they should be viewed as sterling-positive. Unfortunately, half an hour after the announcement, Eurozone inflation and economic sentiment were released at higher than expected levels, giving the Euro some retaliatory strength and reducing exchange rates for the rest of the day.

Tomorrow morning's Bank of England Minutes, to be released at 9.30am, are now crucial to the short-term movement of the Pound. If any of the committee voted for further quantitative easing this month, we could see the Pound's gains of the last week quickly disappear.

This week's economic news

We have plenty of important data out this week which is likely to move exchange rates - including key inflation, unemployment and retail sales figures in the UK, as well as the all-important Bank of England minutes on Wednesday, which will reveal whether more Quantitative Easing was considered this month.

With sterling still vulnerable to any negative news, speak with your Currency Index broker about your own transaction to avoid being caught out by any sudden moves in the market.

Monday 15th
1000 - Eurozone trade balance
1330 - US retail sales

Tuesday 16th
0930 - UK CPI & RPI inflation
1000 - Eurozone CPI inflation & German ZEW sentiment survey
1330 - US PPI inflation
1415 - US industrial production

Wednesday 17th
0930 - UK earnings, unemployment & Bank of England minutes
1000 - Eurozone construction output
1330 - US CPI inflation & housing starts

Thursday 18th
0715 - Swiss trade balance
0930 - UK public borrowing & retail sales
1500 - US manufacturing

Friday 19th
0700 - German PPI inflation

Pound pushes higher against Euro

Rates for sending money in Euros are now at their best for 6 weeks, after the Bank of England inflation report was followed by news of economic woe in Spain (where growth is approaching zero) and Ireland which weakened the Euro.

Worries about Quantitative Easing in the UK are now receding a little, although with 6 consecutive days of improvement in the Pound-Euro rate, there may be some profit-taking by investors as the weekend approaches, which could bring the rate back down.

Inflation report boosts sterling

This morning's Bank of England inflation report has given the Pound a timely boost, as Governer King took a neutral approach and did not mention further quantitative easing.

Furthermore, with the outlook still likely to give high inflation in the coming months, there may even be talk of UK interest rate rises next year, depending on the stability of the recovery. The Bank do not see a significant likelihood that we will slide back into recession.

As a result of the report, the Pound has spiked against the Euro and US Dollar, gaining over a cent against both currencies.

Contact Currency Index for the latest quote on your own transaction.

UK data as expected

This morning's UK manufacturing data and trade balance have come out close to expectations, with no resulting effect on most exchange rates. Attention will now turn to tomorrow's inflation report at 10.30am.

This week's currency news

The main news for the Pound this week is likely to be Wednesday's inflation report, which is an important economic indicator affecting decisions about interest rates and quantitative easing, and therefore the strength of sterling.

Tomorrow's manufacturing figures will also be important, otherwise there is no other significant UK data out this week. Other important data releases around the world are listed below.

Monday 8th
0645 - Swiss unemployment rate
1315 - Canadian housing starts
1800 - Speech - Federal Reservce - Fisher

Tuesday 9th
0930 - UK industrial & manufacturing production; UK trade balance
1400 - unofficial UK GDP estimate
1730 - Speech - Bank of Canada - Carney

Wednesday 10th
1030 - UK inflation report; Speech - Bank of England - King
1330 - US & Canadian trade balance; US jobless claims

Thursday 11th
0030 - Australian unemployment rate
0900 - ECB monthly report

Friday 12th
0700 - German GDP
1000 - Eurozone GDP

Federal Reserve pumps $600bn into economy

The US Federal Reserve has announced an extra $600bn of Quantitative Easing to boost the ailing American economy.

The amount was slightly more than most analysts had expected, but represents a middle-of-the-road approach, which had already been priced into the US Dollar exchange rate.

US Dollar rates are still around their best since February, but there has been no sudden movement in exchange rates which could have been expected if the figure was much higher.

Anybody needing to send money to the USA might like to consider fixing a rate now on the back of current US Dollar weakness.

US Dollar cheaper ahead of Fed decision

Rates for sending US Dollars have improved again in the last 24 hours, ahead of tonight's Federal Reserve decision on Quantitative Easing. Analysts are expecting more money to be pumped into the US economy, which is making the dollar cheaper.

Tonight's decision at 6.15pm is likely to cause strong volatility in the USD rate.

This morning's UK PMI services data showed good growth in the UK's services sector, which has also injected some sterling strength across the board.

Australian interest rates increased

The Australian Dollar gained strength today, after the RBA's decision to increase interest rates to 4.75% sparked increased demand for the Aussie currency.

If you need to make a money transfer to Australia, the next major news is overnight on Wednesday, when retail sales and trade balance figures are released. For the latest rates for Australian Dollars or any other currency, please contact us.

Economic data this week

This week we have interest rate decisions in the UK, Eurozone, Australia and USA. As the various policies of interest rate changes, austerity measures and quantitative easing are revealed, which are variously being touted in the US, UK and Europe, we are likely to see some volatility in exchange rates through the week.

For the latest market reactions and how your own exchange rate may be affected, contact your currency broker for a jargon-free chat.

Monday 1st
0030 - Australian house price index
0900 - Eurozone manufacturing inflation
0930 - UK manufacturing inflation
1230 - US personal consumption & expenditure
1400 - US manufacturing

Tuesday 2nd
0330 - Australian interest rate decision
0800 - UK Halifax house price index
0815 - Swiss retail sales
0930 - UK construction PMI

Wednesday 3rd
0930 - UK services PMI
1400 - US factory orders
1815 - US interest rate decision
2145 - New Zealand unemployment rate

Thursday 4th
0030 - Australian retail sales & trade balance
1000 - Eurozone PPI inflation
1200 - UK interest rate decision
1245 - Eurozone interest rate decision

Friday 5th
0030 - Australian interest rate minutes
0930 - UK PPI inflation
1000 - Eurozone retail sales
1100 - Canadian unemployment rate
1230 - US non-farm payrolls & unemployment rate

Currency Index in the news

To see our interviews on the One Show, Sky News and Five News, regarding rogue traders Crown Currency Exchange and better regulation in the currency industry, please click here to view our YouTube channel.

Nationwide says house prices are falling

Nationwide this morning unveiled its report gauging housing prices in the UK with a worrying downward trend. The monthly comparison of prices showed a 0.7% decline coming after a no-change result last month and plummeting past the forecasted fall at 0.3%.

The official release deals with the potential consequences of the drops in price: "If the recent trend in house prices were to continue through November and December, the annual rate of house price inflation would drop to between 0% and -1% by the end of 2010. This would compare to a rate of +5.9% at the end of 2009."

Falling house prices are a worry for the economy as a whole, and tend to cause a fall in sterling. The Pound has dropped around 0.5c against the Euro and US Dollar this morning.

Pound boosted by GDP figures

This morning's Q3 GDP figures showed that the economy grew more than expected from July to September, showing a 0.8% growth rather than the 0.4% expected by analysts.

This reduced the likelihood of futher Quantitative Easing (QE) next month, and the Pound has spiked up nearly a cent against the Euro and US Dollar on the back of the figures.

This week's economic data releases

As we near the end of October, this week's economic data releases are as follows. For the Pound, Tuesday's GDP figure is the most important, as we learn how much the economy looks to have grown from July to September.

Monday 25th
1000 - Eurozone industrial orders
1500 - US home sales

Tuesday 26th
0930 - UK GDP
1500 - US consumer confidence

Wednesday 27th
0230 - Australian CPI inflation
1500 - US new home sales
2100 - New Zealand interest rate decision

Thursday 28th
0855 - German unemployment rate
1000 - Eurozone economic confidence
1330 - US jobless claims

Friday 29th
0700 - German retail sales
0930 - UK mortgage approvals
1000 - Eurozone unemployment rate
1330 - Canadian GDP

Retail sales fall as Euro rate continues down

This morning's UK retail sales showed a 0.2% decline in September (worse than expected), which has done nothing to help the ailing pound.

The rate for buying Euros is now at its worst since April, and there is no major data due out for the rest of the week to give cause for optimism.

US dollar rates, however, are still holding up due to weakness in the US economy.

Bank of England split 3 ways on policy

This morning's Bank of England Minutes revealed a 3-way split in the monetary policy committee's views on interest rates and quantitative easing.

While 7 of the 9 members voted for no change, one (Andrew Sentance) voted again for an interest rate rise, while one (Adam Posen) voted for a £50bn extension to QE.

Any extensions to QE are likely to hurt sterling and it now seems plausible that this will happen in the coming months.

On top of September's Public Borrowing figures, which showed record levels of UK debt, the Pound could easily fall further in the short term.

The government is also revealing its spending review cuts today.

Currency Index wins OPP Award

We are pleased to announce that Currency Index has won the prestigious “Best Currency Company” award in the 2010 OPP Awards for Excellence, in recognition of our industry-leading client service levels and exchange rates.

Overseas Property Professional editor Geoff Hadwick presented the award to Currency Index at last week’s OPP / Property Investor Live show at ExCeL in London.

This week's currency news

This week, focus in the UK is likely to be on Wednesday's Bank of England minutes, which will reveal to what extent the MPC considered extending the UK's Quantitative Easing programme this month. Any likelihood of further QE could hurt the pound.

Also on Wednesday, the government publishes its key spending review, with details of the billions of pounds of cuts planned in the forthcoming spending round. Markets are concerned whether there will be an impact on the economy, and therefore we feel Wednesday could be a doubly hard day for sterling.

Don't forget, if you are worried about a falling pound, that you can fix exchange rates up to 2 years ahead using a Forward Contract from Currency Index.

This week's economic calendar is as follows:

Monday 18th
1415 - US industrial production

Tuesday 19th
1000 - Eurozone construction output & ZEW economic sentiment survey
1330 - US housing starts
1400 - Canadian interest rate decision

Wednesday 20th
0930 - Bank of England minutes & UK public borrowing

Thursday 21st
0715 - Swiss trade balance
0830 - Eurozone manufacturing inflation
0930 - UK mortgage approvals & retail sales
1500 - Eurozone consumer confidence

Friday 22nd
All day - G20 meeting
1200 - Canadian CPI inflation
1330 - Canadian retail sales

UK Data Update

The data out from the UK this week so far has been mixed at best, unfortunately leading to a fall in the value of sterling against most currencies.

Trade Balance: worse than expected (-£8.2bn)
House prices: worse than expected (up 8.3% in last 12 months but now falling)
Unemployment rate: better than expected (7.7%)
Jobless claimants: worse than expected (up 5,300)

It is worth noting that Bank of England MPC member Andrew Sentance is giving a speech at 6.40pm today, and his views on interest rates and quantitative easing are likely to be taken as signals as to the Bank of England's intentions for the next few months, with implications for the Pound.

This week's currency news

This week's economic data, likely to affect currency exchange rates:

Monday 11th
US/Canada bank holiday (Columbus Day/Thanksgiving)
No major data releases

Tuesday 12th
0930 - UK CPI & RPI inflation and DCLG house price index, plus August trade balance
1900 - US Federal Reserve minutes

Wednesday 13th
0930 - UK unemployment rate & jobless claims
1900 - US monthly budget statement

Thursday 14th
0900 - Eurozone ECB monthly report
1330 - US PPI inflation & jobless claims

Friday 15th
1000 - Eurozone CPI inflation & trade balance
1330 - US CPI inflation & retail sales

Contact Currency Index for our views on how these figures could affect exchange rates for your own currency transfers.

House prices fell 3.6% in September

UK house prices fell 3.6% in September, according to Halifax - the biggest monthly fall since the survey started in 1983.

Although it is too early to say that prices are in decline, there is a worry for the UK economy that further falls in the housing market could cause serious problems for the economy. The Pound has continues its fall against the Euro and may other major currencies.

Currency Index in the news

Further to the collapse of Crown Currency Exchange, who are not Authorised by the FSA, Currency Index has today been commenting to the media regarding the enhanced safety and security offered by Authorised currency companies.

We are due to be featured on the BBC 6.00 news this evening, Wednesday October 6th.

Economic data due out this week

A busy week this week for data releases so we expect some volatility in exchange rates. Contact your account manager at Currency Index for the latest news relating to your currency transactions.

Monday 4th
1000 - Eurozone PPI inflation
1500 - US pending home sales
2000 - Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke speaks
2200 - New Zealand business confidence

Tuesday 5th
0130 - Australian retail sales & trade balance
0530 - Australian interest rate decision
1000 - Eurozone retail sales

Wednesday 6th
1000 - Eurozone GDP
1100 - German factory orders
1315 - US non-farm employment change

Thursday 7th
0230 - Australian unemployment rate
0930 - UK industrial & manufacturing production
1200 - UK interest rate & QE decision
1245 - Eurozone interest rate decision
1330 - ECB press conference; US jobless claims

Friday 8th
0745 - Swiss unemployment rate
1200 - Canadian unemployment rate
1330 - US non-farm payrolls & unemployment rate

Euro rate continues to fall

Despite this morning's Q2 GDP revision showing no change to the 1.2% UK growth figure released earlier this year, the Pound has continued to fall significantly this afternoon, losing nearly 2c against both the Euro and US Dollar.

We are seeing an increasing number of clients worried about the falling Pound and fixing their rates for any currency requirements in the next few months. To discuss your options, do call us at Currency Index for an informal but informative chat.

Currency news this week

Last week saw a significant drop in the GBP-EUR exchange rate, while the GBP-USD rate has gone the other way. With the UK budget cuts due next month, the Pound could be vulnerable to any bad news; this week's data releases are as follows:

Monday 27th
0800 - European Central Bank speech (Trichet)
0900 - Eurozone money supply

Tuesday 28th
0700 - German retail sales
0930 - UK GDP (Q2)
1500 - US consumer confidence
2245 - New Zealand trade balance

Wednesday 29th
0930 - UK money supply & mortgage approvals
1000 - Eurozone economic confidence
Overnight - UK consumer confidence

Thursday 30th
0400 - New Zealand business confidence
0855 - German unemployment
1330 - US GDP & jobless claims

Best USD rate for 6 weeks

Weakness in the US Dollar has led to the best rates for sending money to the States since early August. If you have USD requirements, call Currency Index for a quote to take advantage of the spike in rates.

Euro rate falling as Bank hints at more QE

The Bank of England's policy minutes, released this morning, show that the committee is discussing the possibility of further quantitative easing to stimulate the economy.

With the forthcoming economic cuts also looming, the Pound has started to fall significantly, losing 2.5c against the Euro already this week.

If further QE is implemented, we are likely to see further drops in the value of sterling, as was the case this time last year. Contact Currency Index if you are concerned about falling rates and would like to discuss the possibility of fixing a rate now for delivery later in the year.

Currency news week commencing September 30th

This week's focus in the UK will be on the Bank of England's September minutes, due out on Wednesday morning, particularly whether any members voted for an extension in Quantitative Easing. If this proves to be the case, it would not be good news for sterling.

Elsewhere the following data is out around the world:

Monday 20th
0930 - UK mortgage approvals

Tuesday 21st
0230 - Reserve Bank of Australia minutes
1200 - Canadian CPI inflation
1330 - US housing starts
1915 - US interest rate decision

Wednesday 22nd
0930 - Bank of England minutes
1330 - Canadian retail sales

Thursday 23rd
0930 - UK mortgage approvals
1330 - US continuing jobless claims
1500 - US existing home sales

Friday 24th
0900 - German IFO business climate survey
1330 - US durable goods orders
1500 - US new home sales

UK Retail Sales tumble

This morning's UK retail sales figures are much worse than expected - showing a 0.5% drop in August, compared to analysts' predictions of a 0.3% increase.

The Pound fell on the release, as worries about the state of the recovery continue. If you are worried about falling rates, remember that you can fix and guarantee a rate up to 2 years ahead by using a Forward Contract from Currency Index.

Eurozone & UK Unemployment

UK unemployment has fallen slightly, to 2.47m in the 3 months to July. The unemployment rate remains at 7.8%. In Europe, there has also been a slight fall.

The Pound rose slightly this morning when the figures were released, but continues to struggle due to worries over cuts and the recovery overall. Tomorrow's retail sales figures, due at 9.30am, provide the next test for sterling.

Economic data releases this week

This week's major economic data releases are shown below - a busy week ahead, particularly on Wednesday with key relesases out in the UK, US, Eurozone, New Zealand, Australia and Canada.

For a simple explanation of any of these, and the possible implications on the currency markets, contact Currency Index.

Monday 13th
1900 – Monthly US budget statement
2345 – New Zealand retails sales

Tuesday 14th
0930 – UK CPI & RPI inflation
1000 – German ZEW economic sentiment
1330 – US retail sales

Wednesday 15th
0130 – Australian consumer confidence
0930 – UK unemployment & jobless claims
1000 – Eurozone CPI inflation & employment change
1200 – US mortgage applications
1330 – Canadian manufacturing shipments
2200 – New Zealand interest rate decision

Thursday 16th
0930 – UK retail sales
1300 – Swiss interest rate decision
1330 – US PPI inflation

Friday 17th
1330 – US CPI inflation

Pound down as trade balance worsens

The Pound's recovery this week has been swiftly halted by UK trade balance figures released this morning, which showed a defecit of some £4.8bn in July - £500m worse than expected.

The next major data release in the UK are tomorrow's inflation figures, and with the recovery still fragile, any bad news could spell trouble for the Pound.

Weekly economic roundup

This week we return to the usual monthly data releases from around the world relating to inflation, unemployment and interest rates in many key economies.

The most important day for exchange rates this week will likely be Thursday, when we have the European Central Bank report, Australian and US unemployment, German inflation and UK interest rates and trade balance.

The full calendar is as follows:

Monday 6th
Bank holiday – US & Canada
0930 – Eurozone investor confidence

Tuesday 7th
0530 – Australian interest rate decision
0645 – Swiss unemployment rate
1100 – German factory orders

Wednesday 8th
0700 – German trade balance
0930 – UK industrial & manufacturing production
1400 – Canadian interest rate decision

Thursday 9th
0230 – Australian unemployment rate
0700 – German CPI inflation
0900 – ECB monthly report
0930 – UK trade balance
1200 – UK interest rate decision
1330 – US jobless claims & trade balance

Friday 10th
0930 – UK PPI inflation
1200 – Canadian unemployment rate

Euro rate below €1.20

The Euro mid-market rate has dropped below €1.20 today for the first time since July, prompting fears for buyers of overseas property in Europe.

The Pound has been faltering over the last fortnight, and this morning's Eurozone retail sales data, which showed strong growth of 1.1% in the year to July, has also given the Euro more strength [made it more expensive].

Currency data this week

Major currency data released this week around the world is as follows. To discuss the possible implications on exchagne rates for your own transaction, please contact us at Currency Index.

Tuesday 31st
0130 – Australian current account balance
0855 – German unemployment rate
0930 – UK consumer lending and money supply
1000 – Eurozone unemployment rate
1330 – Canadian GDP
1900 – US FOMC minutes

Wednesday 1st
0400 – New Zealand commodity prices
0900 – Eurozone manufacturing
0930 – UK manufacturing

Thursday 2nd
0230 – Australian trade balance
0645 – Swiss GDP
1000 – Eurozone GDP & PPI inflation
1245 – Eurozone interest rate decision
1330 – US jobless claims
1500 – US factory orders & pending home sales

Friday 3rd
1000 – Eurozone retail sales
1330 – US non-farm payrolls & unemployment rate

Bloomberg analysts warn of falling Pound

Sterling rose to an eight-week high against the euro yesterday despite fears the pound's rally is coming to an end. Currency traders warned sterling will soon go into reverse as spending cuts and tax rises outlined in the Budget curb economic growth in the UK.

Foreign exchange forecasters are the most pessimistic they have been about the pound since May 2009 when rating agency Standard & Poor's said the UK was at risk of losing its AAA status, according to Bloomberg.

This week's economic releases

Week commencing August 23rd 2010; this week's data releases which are likely to have an effect on exchange rates are shown below.

For valuable opinions on what could happen to rates this week, contact Currency Index.

Monday 23rd
0830 - German manufacturing PMI
1500 - Eurozone consumer confidence

Tuesday 24th
0400 - New Zealand inflation expectations
0700 - German GDP
1330 - Canadian retail sales

Wednesday 25th
0900 - German business climate survey
1200 - US mortgage applications
1330 - US durable goods orders
1500 - US new home sales

Thursday 26th
0900 - Eurozone money supply
1330 - US jobless claims

Friday 27th
0930 - UK GDP revision
1330 - US GDP & personal consumption

Retail sales up - Pound gains strength

Most exchange rates have improved this morning, after UK retail sales figures released at 9.30am showed a much better performance in the sector than analysts had expected.

Retail sales in July were up 1.1%.

The Pound has gained 1c against the US Dollar and nearly 1c against the Euro in morning trading.

Bank of England minutes reveal no surprises

This morning's minutes from the Bank of England's interest rate setting committee showed that 8 of the 9 members voted to keep interest rates on hold.

UK interest rates have now been at 0.5% for 17 months.

Currencies are linked strongly to interest rate rises, so anybody hoping for better exchange rates for sending money abroad, will want interest rates to go up sooner rather than later.

Following the Bank's assessment last week that inflation is likely to fall, and that we are in for a "choppy" recovery, we are unfortunately unlikely to see an interest rate rise in the short to medium term.

Pound falls on UK inflation drop

This morning's inflation figures were lower than expected - which, although good news for the economy, is not positive for the Pound. We have lost a cent against the Euro and more against the US Dollar in trading today.

The single currency was boosted by solid demand at an Irish bond auction.

This week's currency data

This week's news releases, likely to affect exchange rates, are as follows:

Monday 16th
1000 - Eurozone CPI inflation
1800 - US housing market index

Tuesday 17th
0230 - Reserve Bank of Australia minutes
0930 - UK inflation
1000 - Eurozone economic sentiment survey
1330 - US housing starts & PPI inflation

Wednesday 18th
0130 - Australian wage price index
0930 - Bank of England minutes

Thursday 19th
0930 - UK money supply, public borrowing & retail sales

Friday 20th
1200 - Canadian CPI inflation

For the latest live rates, please call Currency Index on 0800 043 2623.

Downbeat inflation report

Yesterday's quarterly Bank of England inflation report predicted a "choppy" recovery ahead for the UK, with interest rates low for some time, and the possibility of more quantitative easing in the future.

Coming after an increase in long-term unemployment was announced, the Pound fell yesterday against most currencies, although curiously the weakening Euro has actually provided an improvement in rates for buying Euros over the last 24 hours.